Severe Weather Chances For Our Region???

I often don't use the NAM when referencing for severe weather chances. However, I did take note of some data and tried to interpret it best I could.

A very strong jet at the lower levels should fuel a squall line expected to develop in western KY by later tomorrow evening. One of those 500 mb vortices will also be in the region. That along with favorable lift indices in a -2 to -4 range for a while should maintain the squall line for a time.

But, the NAM wants to accelerate this squall line to where it is negatively tilted (NW-SE configuration). In addition, the wind shear from this vortex tries to tear the squall apart as lift indices come down. It's almost like the NAM wants to blow this line apart. Don't know how accurate that will be.

A line of 45 to 50 mph wind gusts along the squall is possible, especially for western KY. However, the NAM also shows 45 to 50 mph wind gusts for the eastern part of the state but not as widespread as a few hours earlier.

I don't know if the SPC will extend the slight risk category for severe weather to the eastern part of the state or not. We will find out shortly. Next forecast update out by 12:30 pm or so.

When dynamics as such are in place, I would still expect severe weather somewhere along this line and it SHOULD include all of Kentucky, not just the western part.

I'll be looking at the GFS model and see if I can find anything there as its next update package will be available soon.

MS