Sunday, January 22, 2012

NOWCAST Severe Weather Updates

I'll be going into nowcast mode. I hope to feature police scanner info, webcams, current short-term forecast models, and other pertinent information as they become available or as the situation warrants.

LAST UPDATE
Damaging wind is approaching Louisville. Expect power outages and some structural issues. Winds may exceed 65mph in places. Keep safe and take care.
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1:30am Update
In Perry county Indiana, getting report of part of a roof structure in the roadway. Don't know what structure it is...
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1:00am Update
Across southern and western Ky, still getting reports of pea to dime size hail and winds of 40-50 mph. A mesonet reading of 63mph reported as well.

In Dale, Indiana in Spencer county, multiple power outages being reported...

12:45am Update
Rotation indicated by Radar...spotter being advised to move out of his location. Hail core coming their way. Also, radar indicates possible 68 mph winds coming toward them as well. Man, wish I was there.


12:40am Update
About time...SPC just issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch till 5am for Louisville and includes most of our county warning area.

Power outages being reported in Dawson Springs...

12:30am Update
New Thunderstorm Warnings for Christian county...winds in excess of 70mph expected. Spotters, please stop using the term 'heavy winds' and just estimate the darn thing...

12:27am Update
Still awaiting spotter information in Cadiz on approaching tornadic cell. Meanwhile, it appears the squall line is taking on more of a damaging wind threat now for Kentucky and southern Indiana. Still getting reports of 45-55 mph winds and some reports of large hail. Wondering if SPC expands Severe Thunderstorm Watch to Louisville or not. Line is only a couple of hours away...

12:20am Update
Unconfirmed tornado in Murray KY
54 mph wind gust in Trigg county
Tornadic storm heading for Cadiz...seems to have lost its signature crossing over the lakes...may still re-intensify. Next update shortly.

11:45pm Update
Not a good time for Hopkinsville radar to be offline, even temporarily. Spotters in the field awaiting update.
Rotation being observed near Marshall county according to law enforcement
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10:25pm Update
Expecting a Watch to be issued near the Louisville area around midnight or hopefully before. Don't know if this will be for tornadoes or severe thunderstorms.

10:20pm UPDATE
Squall line about to cross Mississippi river into Memphis and parts of west KY as well. Warnings out all along this squall. Tornado threat seems to be south of KY at this time.
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9:30pm Update
Tornado Watch now in effect for west Ky, SE MO, SW IN, southern IL
Not considered a PDS yet...doesn't matter. A watch is still in effect until 2:15am cst.
Reports of tornadoes on the ground in AR. People trapped. I'll be tuning back into Skywarn spotters network shortly.

8:25pm Update
It's now 59 degrees at my location. Wow. At 7pm, temp was 48.
Be back in a little bit...got to take care of some 'daddy' business
I'll be monitoring data from Memphis Tn location next. Perhaps by then, we'll have a Watch issued for the western ky area.
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8:10pm Update
Frustrating to listen to these spotters in the field...Must give specific hail sizes and estimated wind speeds, not just 'heavy winds and coin size hail'.

one or two funnels being reported near England and Red Field AR
One spotter just reported winds near 65mph near the warned area along with marble size hail
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8:00pm Update
Tornado WARNING Pulaski county near Sheraton or Sheridan. So far, these storms have been producing much hail.

Reports of sirens not going off in warned counties. Not NWS responsibility, Emergency Operation personnel instead.

More warnings coming out...things are really beginning to fire now.
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7:55pm Update
This is still in Arkansas. Skywarn spotters in the field, hail ping pong size being reported
Winds of 45 mph being reported I35 and I40 along with penny size hail
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7:35pm Update
Tornado WARNING near White Oak and Camden...in Arkansas.
Also Tornado WARNING for areas near Arkadelphia and Sheridan

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7:30pm Update
Strong hail storm at least pea size has moved thru White county near Searcy AR
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7:00pm Update
A Watch may need to be issued according to the SPC for the following areas...
MD 46 graphic
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SERN MO AND NERN AR
   DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND DURING THE NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
Roughly translated, expect a Watch of some sort, most likely Tornado, to be issued between now and 9pm cst or 10pm est for the circled area above.

By the way, temperature at my house in Valley Station is at 48 degrees
Look at this...


The air is becoming more moist to my south. I expect my temps to surge by 6-10 degrees over the next few hours.

6:30pm Update
Here we go. Tornado Watch now out for

          EASTERN ARKANSAS
          THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
          NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN TENNESSEE

This is also a PDS tornado watch -  a particularly dangerous situation

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
  
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
  
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
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4:45pm Update
SPC considering issuance of a Tornado Watch by 6:00 pm cst for parts of AR, west TN, LA, and MS.
I expect additional watches to issued in quick order afterward including portions of west ky, TN, MO, AL.
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There will be a conference call by the NWS at 2:00pm. I'm sure our local mets will be filling us in on the overall basics. Here's what to expect...

Tornado threat some EF2 are possible, especially west
Damaging wind in excess of 60 mph will be possible
Night time event will catch people off guard...have weather radio or access to local media
Have plan in place in the event severe weather occurs
Timing of storm passage after midnight (as the latest info comes across)

Are you ready???

MS

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