Maybe No Phasing But....

So much attention has been given to thte possibility of the northern and southern stream getting together, that it was hard to look past what could happen after the cold air was in place. The Euro tried to phase the two, the GFS and GEM did not want to phase them. Now, it's all a moot point. The beauty of the models, now show a wave of low pressure developing over the Gulf Coast and riding northeast, all of this while cold air is in place, and MAY produce our first generous snowfall of the season finally.

This will be toward the end of the work week and will now become the dominant weather theme for the week ahead.

Here is a look at the GFS 0z run for late Thursday/Friday time period...

Of course, this is 6 days out; however, it is a feature that is being picked up on my most models. Let's see how they run with it.

Btw, the 10-day snow accumulation models have also gone up. The GFS shows a strip of heavier accumulation pretty much west of I-65 while the GEM shows central KY getting dumped on.

Take a look...at the GEM 10 day snowfall map
 









See that strip of bright green across KY. That suggests water equivalent of 10-15 mm, or about a half inch of melted precipitation. IF all snow, some areas of KY could be looking at 4-6" over the next ten days, perhaps mostly from the late week system that will certainly bear watching.

Finally, long term shows that the GEM brings in another system for the beginning of the work week after that while GFS suppresses everything farther south.

****Here are my thoughts. I don't like to speculate on how things like this will unfold. I just try and look for trends in models supported by other factors that can make these weather systems happen. Right now, it's still too early to say if we'll get that decent dump of snow. Just as I was waiting till about now to determine if the phasing factors were going to setup, now need to wait and see if the trends will support this updated information.

The NAO trend is toward the negative, may even briefly dip into negative territory. Therefore, the window of opportunity is open. Any storms that can develop during this time is fair game.

And this is winter, right? This is supposed to happen. Therefore, let's get ready for that first kiss of winter that sends snow butterflies fluttering and our pulses quickening.****

MS