Snow Chances For Our Region...

I didn't have time to put out a map, but I will say that the NAM is being very generous in putting out quite a bit of QPF for parts of southeast KY. Both the 12z and the 18z runs continue to show this at about 30-36 hours out, depending on which one you view.

Now, sometimes I've seen what I call topographic errors in these model outputs. At times, I don't know if these models cannot figure out snow ratios or topography when assigning QPF amounts to the region. However, the snow ratios for 30 hours out, if viewing the 18z NAM 850mb forecast sounding, suggests at least 20:1 ratios. Therefore, 5-10" would be possible. That sounds like overdoing it, just a bit, don't you think?

On the other hand, the liquid content of this snow, coming from a wet source such as the Great Lakes, will cut down on these snow to liquid ratios, probably on the order of 12 to 14:1.

That still leaves the overly generous QPF output for the region. At times, I think most models have problems with topographic areas and often underestimate or over-exaggerate moisture output and placement. This could be one of those exaggerated, overdoing it type of biases. Based on prior weather patterns, I do think 1 to as much as 4" seems possible in areas of east and southeast KY over the next 36 hours.

Unfortunately, Lexington and points westward to Louisville stand only to receive a glancing shot of some of these lake effect snowshowers, less than an inch expected.

MS