Friday, January 31, 2014

BIG Storm Day 5...Euro vs GFS

This is for the time period of Feb 4-5
Day 7 - Euro model (came out Wednesday)
Snow, mostly north of Ohio River; mix along either side of the Ohio River; mix/rain south of the Parkways

Day 6 - Euro model (came out Thursday)
Slightly warmer solution; rain for most of the state, some heavy; a chance for ice along the Ohio River

Day 5 - Euro model and the GFS
Today and tomorrow will be fun to watch to see how these weather models handle the upcoming BIG storm for next week. More data will be absorbed concerning a couple of perturbations affecting the region before the main storm system arrives. I will update this page at least twice. Stay tuned.
 **UPDATE 1**
2:45pm - 12z run of Euro not flinching; low to track right through central KY, temp profiles looking a bit different, could suggest more mix along the Ohio River while rain dominates the south part of the state. Interesting side note regarding Sun/pm system, a potential significant snow system to impact parts of east/southeast KY. If this materializes, flooding could become likely if heavy rains fall on snow-covered grounds during BIG storm event.

12z GFS latest run shows axis of heaviest precipitation along and south of Ohio River, mostly rain for the entire state. However, low track may be a tad flatter than Euro while tracking through Kentucky, sounds a bit more wintry for the northern part of the state.

MS

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