NOWCAST Super Cold Outbreak 2014

I will be updating this page occasionally today.

At 7:45am, my temperature is 34 degrees
Wx - Cloudy
East wind
Radar returns across southern and southwest IN
45 degrees at Paducah; however, 32 degrees at Indy makes one wonder whether their snow amounts may be affected if warmer air is transported that far north. If so, several inches is still expected there.

Precipitation is starting much later than previous forecasts, indicating a slower thereby strengthening low pressure system, which will pull warmer air into our region. Therefore, rain looks like a good bet throughout the day.

Currently, RAP model, my model of choice during this nowcast mode, has a changeover to snow by 7-8pm this evening for Louisville. Will seek additional changes. Has dramatically reduced my expected snow amounts for the region, except for Indianapolis, who appears to be the primary beneficiary of this event. Will mention possible snow amounts by noon or so.
----------------------------

8:15pm UPDATE
Sorry about not checking in today. Football playoffs, could not get away from them.
What a day. Temperatures rose to 54 degrees at my house in Valley Station. Rain moved in and dropped the temperatures as far down as 43 degrees. Then about an hour or so before the front passed, the temperature spiked to 48. Then, by 7:00, the front passed through. At 8:15, the temperature stands at 35 degrees.

Earlier today, the RAP model forecast was for a changeover by 8pm give or take an hour. Well, I stepped outside to check on things again and I'm getting sleet pellets. So, the changeover is very close at hand. A very accurate short-range model if you ask me.

As far as the snow lover in me, though, I'm disappointed by the short-range forecast by this model. An inch or less is all it is spitting out for my location. Nevertheless, it's the brutal cold that will be the feature headline by tomorrow morning.

Public schools are already closed in Jefferson County, perhaps more for the dangerous wind chills than travel. But, icy conditions from quick freezing will cause problems for tomorrow's rush, no doubt.

I'll update my snow totals later, if it's measurable. Bummer.
--------------------------