What's In Store for February?

Wow. What a month. January has produced some of the coldest weather in many years for our region. As a fringe benefit, snow totals for many have made some people happy, others well, not so much. Let's just say I enjoy the snow when I'm not working. I know some rely on the snow for their work and believe me, I appreciate their work, gets me home safely or keeps me safe while walking in the parking lot of my favorite grocer who still has bread and milk.

Now, try and put January aside for a moment. February is almost on top of us.

It appears a minor pattern change is taking place, even as I write this post. However, the overall pattern looks to remain intact through the first 10 days of February.

Let me break down some things for you.

Recently, the Arctic Oscillation, a measure of pressure relative to the northern middle latitudes where we live, has been mostly negative for much of January. The unusual ridging near the polar region means higher pressure in the Arctic, relatively warmer readings for them. Much of Alaska is included . However, as the Arctic pressure has been high, the pressure in the middle latitudes has been low, keeping our weather cold and stormy.

We have heard much about the Polar Vortex, or polar low pressure system. Typically, the Polar Vortex's winds keep much of the cold air locked up in that region. But, a weak Polar Vortex cannot keep the cold in place because the winds are weaker due to ridging, or high pressure. Air flows from high to low, as one of my instructors told me. Therefore, the chunks of colder air spiraling south creates lower pressure for parts of the United States, creating cold and stormy conditions.

Bottom line is during the Arctic Oscillation's negative phase, we have witnessed these cold air intrusions on a regular basis. However, the minor pattern change suggests the AO will make a run toward neutral , which means less cold air intrusions than what we've been hit with this winter.

The PNA, or Pacific North American pattern, has been consistently positive for much of the past month or two. It is forcast to trend more negative but only for a brief time. That should introduce an unstable pattern for our region. But, our weather will not be coming from the Arctic  for a little while; rather, more of a Pacific or Canadian origin, which is much more typical of our normal winters.

Now, keep in mind, this is just a temporary pattern change. The overall pattern will manifest itself again. But, the higher sun angle of early February will help modify temperatures a  little.

Finally, the SE ridge will be trying to manifest itself. And the way things look to me, if the SE ridge holds, and we revert back to the regular cold air intrusions, somewhat modified, things may get quite interesting by the second week of February.

I don't know. It could be ice. Perhaps snow. Or a good soaking rain. But, I do believe somewhere in our region will get a punishing storm or series of storms. Stay tuned.

MS