BIG Storm Potential Day 7

I will show you my traditional way of following the models. I look at the Euro forecast model first since it is 7 days out. At 5 days out, I'll look at the GFS and compare it with the Euro. At 4 days out, I let the Euro and GFS duke it out. At 3 days out, I bring in the NAM and compare it with the GFS, while the Euro is used for comparative purposes. Within 36 hours, I rely principally on the NAM, using the GFS for comparative purposes. Finally, I resort to the short-term models like RAP that go out 18 hours and compare them with the NAM. I do not use the NAM within 18 hours. Nowcast mode generally begins at 18 hours out. RAP short term model and radar trends and other observational data are included.

With that said, let's start with step 1. I am not looking at the GFS. Only the Euro.
The 12z run of the Euro shows a classic setup we have seen before. Kentucky could become a battleground for various types of precipitation. Nothing new there.

Moisture increases during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures above the surface also warm. Precipitation could be breaking out sometime on Tuesday or late Tuesday across a part of the region. Precipitation types remain a huge question mark.

By Wednesday morning, low pressure is situated near the Tenn/Alabama line. The '540' line at the 500mb level is north of Louisville. The 850mb freezing line is right along the Ohio River. Moisture will be solidly in place everywhere.

Low pressure deepens, moves northeast through SE Kentucky.

I've seen weather patterns like this one before. I am not saying this is how the weather will unfold. Come on. It's still 7 days away!

If I had to say what's going to happen. Snow mostly north of the Ohio River, a mixture of snow, rain, freezing rain along either side of the Ohio River, and a mix/rain event for areas south of the Parkways.

Stay tuned for a look at the Euro 12z run tomorrow.

I see where many people are getting way too excited about the system next week. Reminds me of this commercial that aired during the Super Bowl of 2010.

MS