Nowcast and RAP Model

9:15am UPDATE
1.4" in Valley Station. However, Louisville Metro (Floyd Co. in IN, Oldham Co. and Jefferson Co. in KY) under Winter Storm Warning till early afternoon.
Reports of 4" have been coming in around the Metro.
I'm thinking, really?? Goes to show the short term model, RAP, showed a band of heavy snow developing from the airport east and on northeast of that. I live in the southwest part of the county and have been excluded from the heaviest snow. Quite an accumulation gradient, though.
----------------------
8:05am UPDATE
Forgot to mention, the temperature has now dropped 7 degrees during the last 45 minutes here at my house.
------------------------------

7:55am UPDATE
1.2" in Valley Station...might add a little more but it appears to be winding down some. Winds have really picked up within the last 10 minutes. I've read reports of 3-4" northeast of Louisville.
Perhaps one more band for Louisville.
------------------------

Just checked out the 06 run of the RAP short term model. Earlier last evening, 1.7" was about the average accumulation for Louisville. As of this most recent run, 2.5" is now the average accumulation. We'll see.

At 2:00, we had snow at the airport; however, the temperature and pavement were well above freezing. Snow accumulation was confined to grassy surfaces. Even my snow board only measured a dusting to 0.1", but the grass was whitened by the wet snow.

Winter Storm warnings out for areas near Cincinnati. NWS Louisville still calling for 1-2" for the Metro. However, RAP model is hinting at a moderate band of snow setting up between Louisville and Cincinnati.

Temperatures are now at the freezing mark as I write this. It may take a little longer for the roadways to start accumulating. But, as the snow bands increase, pavement temperatures will continue to fall and not be able to overcome the piling of flakes. I think 2-3" looks possible for the Metro. But, I would not be surprised by heavier amounts.

Floyd County IN has already recorded 1.5" as of 3:30am.

I will update this page later this morning.

MS