Short-Term Model Does Well Again

At times, meteorologists and armchair meteorologists strive to interpret what the weather is going to do by studying routine runs of the different weather models.

The variability in each model can make for a frustrating forecast. Typically, within 24 hours, we enter a 'nowcast' mode, an elegant buzzword that differentiates itself from its cousin, the forecast, by seeing how the forecast models line up with what is currently happening, or most likely studying radar trends and current observations, so as to tweak area forecasts.

In recent times, I have included in my nowcasting arsenal short-term models. These models are designed to do just what its name says, help with a short-range forecast. My favorite is the fairly new Rapid Refresh Model, or RAP, a successor of the old RUC.

The Rapid Refresh Model handled yesterday's storm very well for the Louisville Metro area overall. I studied the hour by hour snowfall accumulation forecast for up to 6 hours ahead. For Louisville, it was spot on as far as amounts, 2.5". In addition, the 1-hour accumulation map showed where the heaviest bands of snow would set up. Again, spot on.

I will continue to use the RAP in future short-range forecasts. However, I am sure that every model has its drawbacks. Yesterday, I'm sure I did not see any 6" totals during my study of the hourly forecast.

So far, the RAP has performed well for 2 consecutive events, a clipper and the recent clipper-hybrid, or as the NWS calls it, an upper-level disturbance (one of Meteorologist Tom Wills' pet peeves).

Short-term models are not just for weather geeks. Aviation interests rely heavily on these models as well.

Other useful short-term models are the SREF and the RPM.

Find out more about the models below...

RAP Short-Term Model

Other Forecast Models

MS