The Next Two Weeks...What To Expect?

The constant ridging in the western part of the U.S. and the Arctic Oscillation Index forecast to remain negative for the next ten days almost guarantees we will have, on average, below normal temperatures for that time period.

A hiccup in the western ridge occurs during the January 24-28 time period. A troughy pattern for thte west briefly sets in, pushing the ridge eastward. How far east remains to be seen. But, it looks like our region will remain cold.

An interesting feature about the eastward advancing ridge is that any storm systems that do develop may encounter a split flow in the jet stream. In winter, that's when things become exciting. Then, one has the southern stream and the northern stream. And if those two can merge over the Ohio Valley, then bam!

Unfortunately, that is at least 7-10 days away. Things seem to always change.

Then for the last few days of the month going into February, the western ridge reestablishes itself south of Alaska, but the Polar Vortex relaxes a little bit. That could mean along with some cold, episodes of warmer air will infiltrate the region. Right when we want snow, too, which can still happen.

In summary, besides these pesky, sometimes overachieving clippers, I see at least one winter storm, possibly two (but that's at the end of this two week time frame) that should attract our attention. Cold in the first week, then cold with some warm air modification during the end of the period (by February 1).

MS