Another Clipper System...Another Bust???

6:30pm UPDATE
The data from RAP is in and it matches well with corresponding models. Now watch for a flop because the clipper-like characteristics will become a storm event as low pressure is progged to develop near the southeast corner of the state. At this rate, situation will be watched closely. I'm thinking amounts may be too conservative.

Louisville expected to receive about 1.7" according to RPM model between 5 and 10am. However, it will be interesting to see if any energy shifts toward developing low quicker than expected. This could have a two-sided impact. Energy absorbed by developing low transfers heavier snow east and northeast of Low quicker perhaps reducing amounts in Louisville to an inch or less. On the other hand, if energy shifts even quicker, the Low could throw more moisture up into our area, giving us in Louisville closer to 2-3". Eastern KY only expecting widespread 1-2" could be too conservative. Look for 4-5" for many in eastern KY.
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2:40pm UPDATE
Looking at the initial readings of the snow to affect the Loujisville Metro, snow moves in after 4:00am with preliminary accumulation approaching 0.4" by 6:00am according to the RAP model. Widespread WWA's should be forthcoming soon for central and east KY with some embedded Winter Storm Warnings for far east KY.
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Precipitation is expected to break out after 4:00am Tuesday morning.

I reviewed the 06z NAM run and it spits out 1.6 - 1.8" for Jefferson County in Louisville. I may review the 12z run but am beginning to await data from the RAP short term model, which performed well for the last clipper.

The NAM's run sounds a bit robust; however, the NWS Louisville has found that a southward shift in the best forcing could produce at least 1" for the county with higher totals not out of the question.

The RAP does show up to 1" amounts near and north of Indy by 2:00am. If that verifies, we could expect to see snow here about 2 - 2.5 hours later.

Bad timing for area roadways as this could present travel problems for commuters, including school buses.

I'll update this page by later this afternoon on the RAP's forecast solution. This will be part of my NOWCAST.

MS