White Christmas???

All eyes are glued to the forecast models. There are some indications for a colder period of weather that may finally include the 'S' word by later this week into the holiday weekend. Of course, timing issues will ultimately decide who gets a possible white Christmas.

I've been looking at the GFS Ensembles Mean 2-m level temperatures for the week.
This is for December 25, still several days away so things can change...

A unanimous trend for above normal readings by Christmas day. However, these same ensembles do show below normal readings shortly after December 25. More likely, this appears to be the best time for any significant wintry weather to occur here, according to this most recent run of the ensembles.

Now, let's take a look at the models...

The 0z runs from the Canadian GEM shows this particular setup...

According to the precip type map above, the GEM wants to show a possible mix/ice setup on Christmas morning. Now, that wouldn't be nice.

The GFS shows a slower solution with affected areas more east than the GEM.
This is for the day after Christmas...

The Euro wants to show a nor'easter, where barometric pressure readings drop from 1009mb to 990 mb in 24 hours. This is forecast around Christmas day according to its latest run.

I will be interested in seeing how the 12z runs pan out. Expect many changes both in time and substance as these models try to figure out what may happen.

MS