My Forecast Snow Amounts For This Winter 2011/2012

In my winter forecast for 2011/12, I did not include my thoughts about how much snow will fall at any one location for the upcoming winter because, realistically, one cannot know this. There are just too many 'what-ifs' to figure out, and the storm tracks are extremely pivotal in determining who gets a lot and who gets a little or nothing.

But, I have been working on a probability table for some locations with an estimate of how much snow could accumulate for this winter at random locations. Due to timing differences, the snowfall estimates may run over into March.

Louisville:
The heat island effect may play a minor part in our snow amounts at the 'official' location. In my winter forecast, I have Louisville on the edge of heavy snow accumulations. However, I'm still expecting above normal snowfal. I'd rather see snow amounts measured at the National Weather Service on Theiler Lane, away from all of the concrete, though

However, we will stick with the airport readings for this forecast. In order not to bore you with my methodology, I will present only a partial table of probable snow amounts compared to normal.

Dec-Feb Average Snow Amounts = 10.8" (based on 1981-2010 norms)

Probability scale of 1-10 and suggested snow amounts

3  - 14"
4 -  15-16"
5 -  17"
6 -  18-19"
7 -  20-21"
8 -  22-24"
7 -  25-26"
6  - 27"
5 -  28"

Therefore, for Louisville, the highest probabilities of 7 and 8 out of 10 suggest snow amounts in a range of 20-26", probably closer to 22".
----------------------------------------

Lexington:
In my winter forecast, I have Lexington in an area where heavy snow could certainly accumulate. Even if this should not verify, I'm still expecting above normal snowfall.

Dec-Feb Average Snow Amounts = 11.0"

Probability Scale of 1-10 and suggested snow amounts:

4 -  14"
5 -  15-16"
6 -  17-19"
7 -  20-23"
8 -  24-27"
7 -  28-29"
6 -  30"

As you can tell, there is a wide spread in probable amounts, anywhere from 20-29". I think Lexington will be in the middle of that range, 26-27".

In a future post, I'll try and include a couple of other locations. Nevertheless, expect higher snowfall amounts as one travels from west to east across the state.

You can access my thoughts about the upcoming winter on this blog in the Miks Piks section.

MS