Well, the late evening HPC numbers are in, a little less QPF than previous runs. However, with a solid 2-4" expected statewide, Flood WATCHES are up for much of central and west Kentucky.
The 12zGEM and 18zGFS have pretty much flip-flopped on rain totals since yesterday. Now, the GEM is calling for about 2.07", while the GFS is calling for 1.87" for the period here in Louisville.
Nevertheless, rain totals that approach 2" will cause river levels to rise, possibly nearing flood stage along the Ohio river gauges. If more than 2" occurs, expect minor to moderate flooding throughout the region, including tributaries that flow into the Ohio river.
Personally, I'm expecting about 2.5", good enough to make this the wettest year on record. Even 2" will do it. Man, what a year!
MS
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