The latest 06z run of the NAM is painting a clearer picture about what to expect from this next storm system, impacting the region mostly overnight and into the day on Tuesday.
Although I would like to review the next run (12z) of the NAM, I've seen enough trends from run to run that convinces me that this system will produce a rain and rain/snow event for the region.
However, for most, if not all of us, don't expect anything significant. Of course, we love surprises, though. This will be one of those instances where dynamic cooling can deal an interesting hand. There will be factors in play that could lend credence to this possibility...
1) Low pressure strengthening to our south
2) Freezing levels above ground level dropping throughout the day
3) Precipitation will still be in the region as the above factors play out.
In addition, a possible deformation zone could set up on the back side of the low thus producing an enhancement of rain/snow or whatever is falling at the time. If this should occur, it would most likely take place east and south of Louisville. Again, though, I like surprises.
Still, don't get too excited about this one as surface temps and wet grounds are not expected to support a nice, heavy wet snowfall. Please, surprise me.
MS
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