Flooding - A Possibility Next Week

The HPC is going gangbusters here on this early Friday afternoon regarding expected precipitation amounts for next week. 5-day QPF amounts of 3-5" for much of the state is forecast. Sounds a little excessive, but the amounts have trended higher over the past couple of runs. In fact, some in the range of 5-6" downstate could be realized.

The 12zGFS is still showing over 2" for Louisville and the 12zGEM about 1.75". I don't quite have the numbers for the NAM yet, but I don't rely on this model very much for rainfall amounts.

Nevertheless, most models are pointing toward another heavy rain maker, which should lead to river rises that may involve minor to moderate flooding in parts of the state by mid to late next week.



According to the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, the Ohio River LG is forecast to fall slowly to around 40 feet by Monday. With expected heavy rains not yet factored in, expect rapid river rise that looks to exceed flood stage of 55 feet if more than 2" should occur.

The Ohio River UG, where downtown Louisville is located, should fall slowly to a little over 17 feet by Monday. Again, expect the river to rise throughout the week, possibly exceeding flood stage of 23 feet next week if the heavy rains verify.

Stay tuned...

MS