Yesterday's 0z runs of the GEM and GFS showed two different scenarios for a storm system poised to develop early next week. The GFS showed a progressive solution while the GEM showed a slower solution with a low tracking to our south, providing the region with a possible wintry mix.
Today's 12z runs show the two models combining forces for a slower solution and a storm track to our west. At this time, both are indicating a rain event for the early next week time period. There's just a slight timing difference between the two. The GFS does hint that there could be some wraparound moisture. If cold enough, have to watch for some flakes then.
The 12z ECMWF has also trended northward and westward. Looks like a clean sweep for rain according to the latest trends.
This does correspond with the general atmospheric consensus. NAO to remain positive for the near term.
Just not enough cold air to tap into just yet. However, some of these stronger lows that will be tracking far north of us may bring down chunks of colder air to parts of the U.S. within the next 10-14 days. Perhaps a pattern change then? We'll just have to see.
MS
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