Model Wars - Early Next Week and Pre-Christmas

Well, I decided not to post any graphics for this upcoming storm system early next week. All of the models indicate an all liquid event. But, some residual precipitation may become a mix toward the end of the event according to a couple of models.

Next on board is a storm system that may take shape just before Christmas and the preceding day. By next Friday, the GFS leads the way, again supporting an idea that the teleconnections continue to show, a mild solution with all rain developing from a southern storm system.

Next, the GEM wants to show an all rain event but does support an idea of really cold air filtering in behind this storm system, while tracking eastward and becoming a formidable storm system along the east coast cranking up to deliver possible snows for the eastern part of the state.

The next graphic shows the southern storm now feeding off the Atlantic and produces an east coast storm that could bring accumulating snows to parts of the region as indicated by the precip type map below.

The teleconnection signals continue to favor the GFS in this circumstance. However, the NAO forecast ensembles does show a more negative read by the end of the month. Perhaps by then, the cold air will become established to support a more wintry storm system.

Perhaps, the GEM is trying to pick up on this a little earlier than the GFS. We'll see how the other models try to figure this one out. However, chances for a White Christmas are looking a little less likely. Originally, I had projected a 40% chance for a White Christmas during my winter weather forecast 2011/2012.

MS