Wintry Pattern Ahead

After basking in above normal temperatures for much of December, the end of the year right on into the first of the new year will feature below normal temperatures and the potential for significant snowfall across our region.

The GFS ensembles are showing a prolonged cold spell with some temperatures deviating some 20-25 degrees below normal across Kentucky during the first part of the new year.

There is the potential for a system to affect the area shortly after Christmas with up to 2" for some of us. Of course, things will change as the upper air data becomes refined. Watch us get nothing at all. Ha ha.

However, the pattern continues to turn colder from there. Every now and then, the GFS sniffs out a possible 'biggie' in terms of snowstorms  for the Louisville area. One of its runs shows over 6" around the Jan 1-3 time frame.

Now, the weather professionals will tell us that it's way too early to forecast amounts this far in advance. The storm has not reached the U.S. yet. We still don't know how strong the storm system will become as it develops.

Typically, a strengthening and progressive storm system draws up much warmer air for our area as the track of the system takes it north of the area, giving us rain.

However, there's already going to be cold air in place. Any warming will be offset by the cold airmass in place at the time. Therefore, snowfall looks increasingly likely or the threat of freezing rain is there also.

More cold air will follow as the snowpack will limit much surface warming. An active weather pattern should bring additional snowfall to the area.

So, things are shaping up for a cold and snowy period for us here in Kentucky.

If you're a fan of winter and snow, have fun.

MS