Starting today, I help try to unravel the percentage for a 2012 White Christmas here in Louisville.
Things are still pretty far away. So don't fret when you see these percentages. They will likely change each day based on the latest data suite from the models. Unfortunately, we still have to rely on the GFS this far out.
Right now, based on the data from the CPC, GFS forecast models, and teleconnection indices (AO and NAO primarily), several mixed signals coming in already. However, one thing they all agree on: limited chance for a White Christmas.
At this point, I'm assigning a 5% chance for a White Christmas in Louisville. Again, don't fret. As long as the GFS is in control, expect changes from run to run. In a few days, I'll tap into the data from the Canadian GEM also and eventually the NAM.
There was a better chance for a pattern change by the end of the year (time period of Dec 27-29). But, GFS ensembles were hinting at much above average temperatures by then. And the AO and NAO are forecast to be near neutral.
I'll update the chances tomorrow.
Have a good evening,
MS
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