MrHP and Model Time

After being teased by a couple of analogs, I say it's time to look at the models. Top 15 analogs were showing a decent stripe of snow setting up north and northwest of Louisville. Heavy snow for Indy to Louisville, anywhere from 2-8" in that region  (less south and more north)

The latest NAM model is in...
It's warmed over the previous runs, showing a low traveling through central KY, keeping the warmest readings just to the east and south of low pressure. Another low forms in the Carolinas. It looks like a transfer of energy from KY low to Carolinas. Generally, that means lighter snows for most of us. Mostly a rain maker. Wow, a lot of rain. The NAM at times has been too wet with QPF in the past.

According to the 00z GEM...
Shows a similar track displayed by the latest NAM. Total precipitation from Louisville to Indy about 1.10-1.18". Most of that will be rain for Kentucky and parts of southern Indiana. Even Indy will see some rain or a rain/snow mix from this for a while. However, potential snow amounts may be robust toward Indy by the time the storm moves on.

MrHP is back. It's my Mid-range Highest Probability forecast. Admittedly this one will be a tough one to call. Generally, within 24 hours of a snow event is my most accurate forecast. We're still not there yet. But I like to put out at least 2 of these MrHP forecasts and compare them.

So, don't put too much into the first forecast. The next one will be my final call.

Although this is a wet system, I'm looking for where accumulating snow will occur. Here's how I see it for some locations on this first call for snowfall.

MrHP First Call for Snowfall says....

Indy 3-5"
Louisville 1"
Vincennes 2-4"
Evansville 1-3"
Cincinnati 1-3"
Lexington <1"

Again, the trend has been to warm up this system. We'll see how the next few model runs pan out.

MrHP Final Call for Snowfall out first thing tomorrow.

MS