Yesterday, I featured a 2006 analog that showed heavy snow lining up along the Ohio River from Louisville to Cincinnati, at least 2-3" for Louisville because rain was the dominant precipitation.
I mentioned the possibility for at least 5" for Louisville if the air mass is colder than the one in 2006.
Today's featured analog is from December 16, 2007. Shows mostly a rain event for most of Kentucky with total precipitation nearing 0.75". Less than 0.50" of additional precipitation is expected with temperatures going below freezing. That could mean 1-4" for Louisville.
However, the top 15 analogs suggest an interesting solution. Snowfall 2-4" for Louisville. Just north of Louisville across southern Indiana 4-6". Near Indianapolis at least 6"
Rain will be a feature of this storm system. When will the changeover begin? If that changeover is sooner then more snow for Louisville. So far, looking at yesterday's analogs along with today's, the best scenario at this time would be 2-4". However, any shift in the storm track will be critical as to storm amounts.
This is for the time frame just after Christmas. So, it's still looking like no White Christmas for 2012.
MS
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