During the 12 days of Christmas, I've been highlighting the percentages of a White Christmas here in Louisville for this year.
Dec 14 : 5%
Dec 15 : <5%
Dec 16 : <5%
I've been watching the GFS ensembles. One persistent feature is a huge block just west of Greenland. Major ridging to take place there. Above normal temperatures expected there.
However, another feature I see on the long-term maps is chunks of cold air dropping into the northwest during the Dec 28-30 time period. How far south can this air mass penetrate? High temperatures in Louisville are expected to dip into the 30's for a time. Even as early as this upcoming Friday or so, temps are expected to turn quite cold before a quick warm up.
If enough blocking can take place over an extended period of time, expect colder air to pour into the U.S. But, we need the PNA to be negative for this to happen.
MS
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