Analog Time

At times, I look at past analogs for help in determining a possible solution for upcoming weather scenarios. I've used it for severe weather, such as the tornado outbreak in March 2012 for our region.

This time, I'm looking at an analog for help in figuring out a possible winter storm for the Louisville area and other parts of Kentucky and southern Indiana.

I've chosen the year 2006. The month is February. A low pressure tracks up the Carolinas with a secondary low traveling up east TN and east KY.

Rain overspreads the commonwealth. Snow filters in behind the front, providing accumulations for southern IN. Low pressure transfer from parent low along the Carolinas to secondary low in east TN and KY enhances precipitation in the region.

As secondary low moves east, colder air pours in changing rain to snow, heavy at times. Heaviest snowfall occurs across northern and north-central KY. Total precipitation amounts exceed 0.50". Snowfall amounts 2-3" near Louisville, 1-4" across southern IN.

If the air mass becomes colder as our upcoming storm affects us, expect more snow, with accumulations exceeding 5" in places, especially near Louisville to Cincinnati. I feel this is where the best chance for deformation may take place.

One of the current model runs suggests the aforementioned track. Continue to monitor the latest. I'm sure other analogs will become available by tomorrow. But, right now, the 2006 analog is the one I'm looking at.

MS