Due to the nature of this complex, still developing winter/spring storm system, I've delayed my final call for snowfall till 1pm today at the earliest.
If this was a typical winter storm with just snow and rain, I would have put out a forecast by now. However, several dynamics are at work this morning and will continue throughout the day.
Heavy snow, even crippling amounts, are still in play. In addition, freezing rain, sleet, heavy rain, severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, all of these are part of the same system.
Other factors include energy transfer from one low to another, moisture blocking that could inhibit precip amounts in our region, variable temperature profiles at the surface, 2500ft, 5000ft, and 10000ft above the surface that will determine precip types and duration of precip types
Louisville is right on the edge of this mess. NWS Louisville is doing an excellent job keeping it as simple as possible for its CWA. But the above factors will challenge the skill of our forecasters, with some missing the mark entirely. I don't expect anyone to nail it completely, especially for the Louisville area.
At this point, it could be all rain to 5" snow for the area.
I'll be posting my next update this afternoon.
MS
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