Trying To Figure Out the Next System

Another significant storm system to approach the area by midweek next week. One thing I've noticed is that the models I use have 'warmed' over the last few runs. More than likely, there will continue to be fluctuations in the forecast models until a better handle on this over the weekend.

Using historical information by means of analogs, high temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40's for parts of our region. It was looking like low 40's for a few runs. Again, though, fluctuations in strength of the trough and placement/speed will likely occur for the next several runs.

Here's one of the analogs I'm using so far. Bear in mind, as the models make more sense of this upcoming storm, additional analogs will become available for forecast assistance.



















This one is from 2007 around the 20th of November. Therefore, one would have to adjust temps a little bit to fit our late October readings.

So, I can see temperatures here ahead of the front to range between 75 and 80. However, based on this analog, which keeps coming up in these model runs, temperatures will likely crash behind the front by some 30 degrees! Look for highs in many parts of the state to range from 45 to 50 degrees for highs by Thursday/Friday, depending on timing of frontal passage.

As far as wintry precipitation, setup looks somewhat similar to the last system. Not much expected except for the higher elevations in eastern KY. But, this still can change as this storm system evolves

Although severe storm chances appear to be dwindling, I'm not going to write it off completely. There will be some strong wind fields involved. At the very least, there will be gusty winds along and behind the frontal passage. However, severe weather should be confined to the south in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana.

For now, I'll keep looking for trends. Otherwise, we'll just have to wait for the models to decide how best to develop this one. Stay tuned....

MS