Other Thoughts About the Next System

Well, we have this storm system bound to take shape very soon now. The models are spitting the data out, and the various NWS offices are now offering their thoughts about it. So, here it goes:

NWS Louisville

A sfc wave along the front as well as a mid
level speed max ahead of the approaching upper trough and
strengthening of the right rear region of the 300mb jet will enhance
rainfall Wed night into early Thurs morning...we should see a good 1-2 inch rain area
wide from this system...By Thurs night, another reinforcing trough will dive south out of
Canada into the Midwest while a second weakening trough moves ENE
out of TX/OK into the TN valley. Models differ on the evolution of
these troughs...Thurs and Fri will be much cooler behind the front in
the 50s for highs...maybe even a few upper 40s.
-----------------------------------------

NWS Jackson

THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
MOISTURE TO EXIT TO THE SE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP THEN
RETURNING LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES AND PASSES. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ON OUR RIDGES IN THE SE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH POOR INTER-MODEL
AGREEMENT AND POOR INTRA-MODEL CONSISTENCY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ..THE GFS
CONTINUES TO LEAD THE PACK...MOVING DRIER AIR INTO ERN KY ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY PRECLUDE ANY
REAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK PEAK AT THE
INCOMING 25.00Z EURO INDICATES SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE 24.12Z RUN
WHICH HAS BEEN...AND CONTINUES TO REPRESENT THE SLOWER END OF THE
SPECTRUM...BUT DID COME IN A TICK FASTER...SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARDS THE MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEM SOLUTION.

NWS Paducah

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING SINCE IT APPEARED
THE POST FRONTAL RAINS WOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THEN. HOWEVER...
THE GEM AND ECMWF MODELS NOW SHOW PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ..THE FACT
THAT THE ONCE DRY ECMWF IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEM MAKES ONE
WONDER IF IT IS PICKING UP ON SOMETHING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GFS
TO SEE IF IT BEGINS TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF.

NWS Indianapolis

A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. 00Z ECMWF
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z GGEM BOTH HANG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
UP IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THUS KEEP SOME
PRECIP IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE DAY FRIDAY. PREFER THE OP GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IDEA OF MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
REMAINING SEPARATE.

Therefore, some NWS offices are hanging on to the idea that everything will dry out by Friday. However, an awareness of the other models' opposing views is adding a bit of drama as to how this upcoming weather system will play out.

My thoughts remain the same until I'm convinced otherwise by some type of agreement among all of the models. Even if precipitation should linger in the colder air, the chances of wintry precipitation should be confined to higher elevations of eastern KY. I still think 40's look plausible for highs on Thursday and struggling to get out of the 40's Friday. However, there's still time. Let's see what happens later today with the model runs.

MS