On Monday, yes, just yesterday, I highlighted the CPC's 8-14 day outlook for Oct 18-24 and it was showing above normal readings for much of our region. Today, a much different picture. Since the GFS introduced the possibility of a significant cold spell for the first part of that period and continues to reemphasize that cold spell, today's 8-14 day outlook paints a much colder solution for the period.
Other teleconnections are supporting this forecast including the NAO, which is forecast to turn negative during this time.
Some of the data I've been looking at supports frozen precipitation as far south as Louisville. Could be wet snowflakes or sleet pellets; regardless, a possible introduction to winter already?
This might prove to be the Season-Altering Pattern Shift (SAPS) that I wanted to see happen during October for finalizing my winter forecast 2011/2012.
MS
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