From my point of view, this has been one of the best stretches of Fall weather in a long time. Warm days and cool nights, clear skies, and dry weather. Everyone who had outdoor activities or chores offered no complaints that I'm aware of. I didn't complain.
Now, turning our attention to a significant pattern change, I'm becoming more convinced that the GFS wants to end the growing season by sometime next week (around Oct 19-20). This could introduce the first sign of how our upcoming winter may play out.
In my final segment on Working On the Winter Forecast 2011/2012, I will show one of the trends that I could be leaning toward, IF this indeed is that pattern change I've been waiting for in October.
At any rate, sometime next week, colder air will be pouring into the Ohio Valley with temperatures tumbling and possible talk about wind chill readings, yes, below freezing wind chill readings. In addition, if enough clearing and calm conditions set in, low temperatures in the city of Louisville could approach the low to mid 30's, meaning that the 'burbs could dip into the upper 20's to low 30's. A killing frost is possible. Stay tuned.
Another shot of cold air may invade the region the week before Halloween. However, I expect warmer conditions before the end of the month.
Looks like how our winter may unfold? Lots of ups and downs....
MS
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