A very active holiday weekend indeed is unfolding right now primarily to our west and northwest. Look for our weather to begin deteriorating this afternoon in the Louisville area.
At the moment, the severe parameters I've been looking at are pretty tame. However, there were 3 pockets of concern. The closest one of those pockets to us will be harassing St Louis vicinity. A great deal of shear is present all along this warm frontal boundary. Although LI's are not very impressive along with CAPE vals being a non-factor, look for these parameters to become more ominous later today, particularly as they approach the Louisville area.
The other pocket of concern will probably occur later tonight as precip has not even broke out yet in eastern OK and western MO. Shear values are quite high and LI's already in the -4 range along with CAPE vals around 2000. Not bad for this time of day. Of course, dewpoint readings will be on the rise and will help 'juice up' the atmosphere.
If anything, look for quite a bit of heavy rain, especially along and north of the Ohio river. My current thinking is the heaviest rain will fall across water-logged southern Indiana for today. For tonight and tomorrow, that will shift a little bit south in our area. Current thinking is still 2-4", depending on thunderstorms and 'training'.
Graphics and additional thoughts later.
MS
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