Countdown to the Severe Round

The countdown is on. But how bad will it really get here, not just locally in Louisville, but regionwide? I hope to provide some input. Don't take my word for it. The numbers that I will be providing come from 'professional' sources. Perhaps my take on the weather outlook may be different than the professionals. But, I'll be looking at the same numbers the pros do. So, here we go.

UPDATE 2:30pm edt
There have been numerous tornado warnings primarily south of the Metro area. Although people may not like me saying this, most if not all of these warnings have been unconfirmed. Nevertheless, all tornado warnings that had been issued were for a good reason: lots of spin in the atmosphere. Any spin could reach the surface at any time. Honestly, I did not think mid to late morning was the best time. I expected the activity to ramp up after 1pm. However, I did expect more tornadic cells closer to the TN border, and Hopkinsville and Paducah are pretty close to that area. I also expected severe weather to be located mostly south and east of Louisville.
Currently, there are power outages in the local area and some trees/downed lines across the area as well. I will update the official NWS wind gust report soon.
Severe storm threat has really shifted more south and east of Louisville now.

UPDATE 12:20pm edt
No tornado warnings in effect as of now.
Still wondering if any of that spin reached the surface near Paducah?
These should still remain isolated at best.
Expect a WATCH to be issued for Louisville and points east soon.
UPDATE 12:15pm edt
61-63 mph winds reported near Paducah
UPDATE 12:00pm edt
No confirmation but possible building collapse near Paducah

UPDATE 11:25am edt
tornado warning for McCracken and Ballard counties in west KY. Radar-indicated. So far, no confirmed tornadoes or much severe storm reports. There is a lot of spin in the upper levels, thanks to the shear environment. But will these storms put down a tornado? Perhaps later, but should be farther south. Watch out for severe robbing cells moving out of AR into MS and TN. Could lessen our chances later. We'll see.
UPDATE 11:10am edt
As of 11:05, only 1 tornado warning out (Union AR). Hopefully, current activity will die down, but expect potential redevelopment later this afternoon

UPDATE 10:35am edt
tornado warning for Sikeston, MO radar-indicated

UPDATE 10:20am edt
Right on cue, as soon as I downplay severe threat, the SPC issues a tornado watch for west KY and points south and southwest. I'm kinda surprised. I expect a few severe storms but not overly optimistic about tornado threat yet...maybe after 1 or 2pm.
Currently, t'storm warning products are in effect for areas to our west.
----------------------------------
Yesterday, my assessment of the severe weather outbreak was pretty accurate. The SPC did a fine job of anticipating the extent and type of severe weather yesterday. Lots of hail reports, few tornadoes. The 'numbers' that I saw supported this type of setup.

Now, what are the numbers telling me??? First, let's keep in mind the storms currently rolling through parts of central Indiana and Missouri will continue to weaken throughout the early morning. Therefore, it will be tough to look at the 'current numbers' and gage how strong the storms will be this afternoon. We will need the instability or be in a process of destabilization for any stronger storms to redevelop. We can use the short term models, since they did a pretty good job of forecasting the severe storms across the midwest yesterday.

The SREF model from the SPC shows instability greatest from Tennessee southward. Percentage that LI's of -4 will occur are greatest from Nashville south. Only a 10% chance for LI's of at least -4 here in Louisville.

Surface based CAPE vals >500 percentage is greatest south of the western KY parkway. Limited somwhat here in Louisville.

0-1km Helicity values do exceed 150, indicative of moisture transport on the heels of strong low level jet.

The question now is: Will the lack of instability here be overcome by the Helicity values that will be in place?
My current thinking is that some strong winds will mix down to the surface with any thunderstorms. Some may approach severe limits (>58 mph). Best chance for this to occur will be south and east of Louisville. I would give Louisville about 10% chance for severe weather (a warning could be issued but actual severe weather not likely). Hail prospects not too high. Tornado threat quite low.

The farther south and east of Louisville, the greater the chances for severe weather. Generally, east of I-65 and south of the western KY parkway stand the best chance for severe weather. Damaging wind will be the main threat.

More updates later this morning...
MS