The NUMBERS Game

Yes, this weekend, I'll be focusing on the 'numbers' from the SPC to help determine our severe weather opportunities.

11:30 am edt UPDATE
Power outage update
http://stormcenter.lge-ku.com/default.html
Just getting back from my storm spotter location here in Valley Station
I will say that we had marble size hail, lots of lightning, and torrential rain. Winds were not much of an issue, less than 40mph.
I hope to post video footage sometime today, 3 different installments of about 10 total minutes.

10:15 am edt UPDATE
t'storm WARNING for several counties just west of Louisville
Line appears to be intensifying especially areas approaching Breck and Meade counties. It is moving this way. I'll be stationing myself at my storm spotting location soon. And yes, I'll have camara and video ready just in case...

10:00 am edt UPDATE
T'storm WARNING for the Jasper area for that bowing segment depicted several minutes ago.
Look for these storms to move near or into the Louisville area between 11 and 11:30. Right now, if this thing holds, the bowing line, the apex, will be in Louisville or just north by 11 or so.

At this time (9:30 am edt), a line of strong/severe storms is currently moving across western IN and western KY. So far, only one report of severe weather, 1" hail in Knox county IN. I'm also noticing a slight weakening trend in the southern part of the line. That could be temporary. The SPC has much of KY in a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until the early afternoon.

The 'numbers' are NOT showing me much in the way of support for severe weather. However, warm fronts can and often produce efficient amounts of heavy rain and especially hail during severe weather periods.

Dewpoints in Louisville and points north and east are not very favorable
LI's have been fairly stable for the last few hours. Closest negative LI's reside across western parts of KY
Helicity vals modestly high across the region thus some spin in the atmosphere capable of supporting hail and theoretically tornadoes.
CAPE and MLCAPE pretty tame

Overall, hail appears to be the main threat with this complex of storms. However, let's keep watch on the radar trends for further strengthening as this line rapidly moves east. Although the southern line appears to be weakening, the overall complex is generating its own 'energy' to support severe weather, especially north of the Ohio river. At this time, it appears the line is trying to bow west of Jasper IN.

MS