The Grand Finale...w/UPDATES

The last in a series of drenching and damaging storms coming our way, setting up a scenario that will place this long-lived storm system in the record books. And speaking of records, Louisville has easily surpassed its all-time April rainfall record with nearly 2.25" falling since midnight as of 5:00am report. Now, that Louisville has surpassed its all-time April record, that places us in the top 10 wettest months of all time.
At 12.88", we are now ranked 6th on that list. Looks like we'll easily move into 5th in just a little while. More updates on that later.

Follow my updates on river levels, flooding, and severe storm chances for this storm system's grand exit today.

7:40pm
Like you, I've been glued to TWC watching just a horrific scene; almost surreal, like I was watching a sequel to the blockbuster movie "Twister". Debris ball signatures on radar, watching debris fall from the sky of a tornado that hit 17 miles away in nearby Tuscaloosa. Just horrible. Damage has been classified as "extreme".

On a lighter note, The Great Steamboat Race postponed due to high water on the Ohio.

6:12pm
Tuscaloosa - Tornado emergency; debris ball just west of University of Alabama; damage more than likely ongoing.
Huntsville - Tornado emergency

6:05pm
2 more confirmed tornadoes in Grayson county. That's at least 5 confirmed tornadoes during the past few days in addition to at least 16 confirmed tornadoes for this month. More tornadoes expected and could challenge our all-time tornado record for any month at 29.
5:53pm
New daily rainfall record for this date in Louisville. So far, we've had 2.89" unofficially since midnight. This easily drowns the old record of 1.33" .

5:45pm
Mississippi confirms at least 6 deaths with 41 counties reporting storm damage

Tornado WATCH now in effect for Louisville and most of viewing area till 1:00am edt

5:40pm
Destruction everywhere in Alabama as tornadoes/storms claim at least 6 lives.

Even well-built brick homes can't stand against nature's fury...

3:55pm
Again, from the SPC:
A 50-70 KT 850 MB JET APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP  NORTHWARD TO THE
   WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS A 100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO OHIO BY LATE THIS
   EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.  GIVEN AT LEAST
   WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... STRONG TORNADOES APPEAR
   POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR STRONG /STRAIGHT LINE/
   DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS.
This is why I think we don't need that much sunshine today...
3:45pm
NEW update from SPC about tornado chances. Now covers the entire state. Wow!

3:20pm
Severe thunderstorm warnings now breaking out in parts of southern and southeastern MO.

3:00pm
Looking at the latest numbers for possible tornadic cells, subject to change of course, I'm concerned about a line from Bowling Green to Campbellsville to Lancaster to Richmond as the 'most likely' to see tornadic storms in Kentucky. However, most locations within Kentucky need to be on alert. I'll update my 'most likely' areas again in a little bit.

2:35pm
Latest from the SPC:
 
The moderate risk area has shifted...again...to include central Kentucky. This time, I think they got it right. The GFS and NAM are both compromising on the position of the Low and puts it just west and northwest of Louisville.
We have seen this setup before. Even if we don't get the required 'instability' from the heating of the sun, the spin in the atmosphere and low-level jet maxes and all that other good stuff will still have the potential to put out a few tornadoes.

1:45pm
Latest models guidance on additional precip amounts
GFS <0.75"
NAM 1-1.25"
RUC 1.35"

Severe Weather reports:
Numerous reports coming in from the eastern part of the state. Wind damage primary culprit. Some damage reports sound like possible tornado damage.

12:10pm
I've commented on this before, but I think we'll be nearing another record for the month: the number of actual tornadoes for April in Kentucky, 29, which is actually an all-time record for any month, tied one other time.

11:35am
Ohio river on the rise. A dramatic jump in readings has placed it about 1.5 ft higher than expected at about this time on the LG at McAlpine and about 1.2 ft higher on the UG. Adjusted crest levels and times coming soon.

Here are some rain totals since midnight...

Unofficially, Louisville has received some 2.81" since midnight and now is up to 13.46" for the month, making this the 5th wettest month of all-time. The next level to beat is 14.91".

Weather permitting, NWS survey crews determining possible tornado damage in Hardin county and Grayson county.

MS