Severe Weather Watch Sunday report

I'll be adding to this post throughout the day...Here's the latest about our severe weather chances...
UPDATE 10:50pm edt
Roof damage in Topeka from very high winds >70mph est.
http://wibw.mycapture.com/mycapture/photos/FImage.aspx?ImageID=1107140&EventID=731566&CategoryID=48719&CollectionID=0&Sort=

http://wibw.mycapture.com/mycapture/photos/FImage.aspx?ImageID=1107122&EventID=731566&CategoryID=48719&CollectionID=0

Topeka had a high of 92 today. Wow! Temp at 10pm edt is 56.

Dubuque IA - 3-3.5" hail or teacup size
UPDATE 9:30pm edt
Mostly a hail event thus far in IA, KS, and MO; some 2" in diameter
Topeka has had 70-80 mph winds, estimated

UPDATE 9:15pm edt
Storms have been cranking in Iowa. At least golf-ball size hail is expected with some storms. Possible gustnado reported in Lecompton KS
Winds are calming down some in the local area

UPDATE 6:15pm edt

The winds today have been quite gusty. At my house, I've lost a few small branches, but that's about it.
I noticed on the LGE power outage map that over 4,000 customers are currently without power in a large chunk of the east end of Jefferson county. Don't know if it's due to the wind, though. You can check out the current outages here:
http://stormcenter.lge-ku.com/default.html
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NWS UPDATE 5:00pm edt
AROUND NOON...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DESTABILIZING AIRMASS
OVER THE CWA WITH H85 JET AROUND 60 KNOTS TO HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
100-120 KNOT JET WILL FAVOR MORE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. 70-80 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FULL LATITUDE POSITIVE
TILT TROUGH WILL ALSO NOSE IN AT THE MID LEVELS. ALL OF THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR STRENGTHENING/ORGANIZING QLCS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE I 65 CORRIDOR. AS
THE LINE MOVES EAST...EXPECT STRENGHTENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL REMAIN TO BE HOW UNSTABLE WE GET AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND HOW
WELL LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A LESSER
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE BEST TIMING
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO GET GOING AROUND 2 TO 4 PM
NEAR THE I 65 CORRIDOR... MOVING EAST TO THE I 75 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
6 TO 8 PM EDT.------------------------------------
**Pressure reading and wind update**2:45pm edt
Non t'storm wind gusts:
Champaign IL 53mph
Marion IL  52 mph
Lawrenceville IL 51 mph

Lowest Pressure readings:
Clarion IA  29.24" (990 mB)
Perry IA  29.24"
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**Early Afternoon Update**
Looking at the 'numbers', I'm impressed with the potential for severe storms out west today. Areas just south of Kansas City MO under a moderate risk for severe weather. Large hail looks to be the main threat. In fact hail up to 3" in diameter may occur with the stronger storms. CAPE vals above 3000, LI's -8 to -9, but SR helicity 0-1km not too impressive (therefore, not too concerned about tornadoes near Kansas City). However, am impressed with 'dry line' setting up across Kansas. During the last hour, Garden City reported a temp of 85 with dewpoint of 25. Travel eastward to Topeka, temp is 83 with dewpoint at 60. As the dry line progresses eastward, look for interaction with modestly unstable airmass. Depending on the cap in place, severe storms will fire up in a few hours.
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According to the SPC, the general thinking is for the greatest instability to reside just south of the Louisville area. However, there is still a chance for severe weather with damaging wind the primary threat within the 15 percent range. Overall, this does not look like a widespread severe event for our region at this time.

MS