The Low Strikes Back

***FINAL UPDATE***5:30am est
Thankfully, did not have to report anything from my location in Valley Station (SW Jefferson county). Winds I would estimate at about 50mph. After the winds calmed significantly and the rains began to pick up, power lines began arcing in the distance, actually just around the corner where I live. Power blinked twice while the lines were touching, probably from a small limb dangling on a power line. However, some apparently have lost power. My area was actually hightlighted on the LGE/KU energy outage map, showing 58 customers without power, as of this update. Just about an inch has now been collected in my faithful rain gauge and still raining lightly right now.
http://stormcenter.lge-ku.com/default.html

***UPDATE***4:15am est
Storms are moving into the area. Hopefully, I'll be able to post after the brunt of this passes thru. I'm going into Storm Spotter mode. My first report will be to the NWS if needed. Later...
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***UPDATE***3:55am est
Storm reports coming out of Gibson county in SW Indiana. Reports of damage in Owensville and southern Princeton. Several homes damaged. Gas company has been requested to check for gas leaks.
Also in Gibson county: roof blown off brick building taking down power lines.
Dubois county in SW Indiana: trained spotter estimates winds at 65mph during last hour.
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***UPDATE***3:00am est
I've been studying the RADAR loop coming into SW Indiana. Quite an impressive bow echo with this. Winds could easily be hitting 70mph and the bowing segment is moving east at 60mph! IF this particular cell can maintain itself, I would not be surprised if Louisville or areas just north of the river become impacted by 5-5:30am. So far, it appears power outages will be likely with this cell. For those of you who have LG&E and KU energy, here is a power outage update.
http://stormcenter.lge-ku.com/default.html

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***UPDATE***2:35am est
Several Tornado Watch  products in effect to my west and north. I have really been impressed by the winds this morning. Did anyone issue a wind advisory or even high wind watch for the area? Hmm, may want to think about that (lmk NWS)! I don't see it posted anywhere for the local area. Surprisingly, too, is the line that's been coming out of central Missouri into Illinois. Winds of 70mph quite common with this line causing much damage in and around St Louis.

OK. This just in. TORNADO WATCH now in effect for western KY and central KY to Frankfort.until 9am cst or 10am est. Things are really getting active. I hope people have their weather radios handy.
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***Brief Update***11:00pm est
Looks like storms are holding together fairly well along a dry line about to exit Oklahoma. Severe weather chances will rapidly increase once cap is completely eroded across Arkansas. Due to the timing of this, it appears onset of severe weather may be delayed at least a couple of hours than my previous thoughts. Therefore, expect western KY to see storms by 3-4am, central by 7-8am. All for now.
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Previous

More action than George Lucas' Star Wars trilogy, The Empire Strikes Back. Yes, another round of severe weather returns to the region and looks to give those who missed out on the severe weather last time a shot from the 'dark side'. In fact, as I was preparing this post, an alert came across that a Tornado Watch was being issued for parts of southern Kentucky and north-central Tennessee. I decided to follow the action. Wow! Already? I wasn't expecting the severe weather outbreak to begin so far east. Well, it really hasn't and I don't expect it to before midnight. The main action will be after midnight beginning in the western part of Kentucky.

I've been going over some of the most recent data. Let me present some of the most recent maps and then offer my thoughts.

First, one of those ingredients I talked about yesterday is dewpoint. Here is the latest map on that:

  
As I have mentioned before, I like readings to be above 55 degrees (severe weather can occur with readings below 50, just not very often).

This next map is a recent analysis of the wind shear vector from the surface to 1 km high. Anything above 20 can favor supercell development.

 
The same scenario applies to the 0-1km Helicity value that I pointed out yesterday. Again, these values have been off the chart! As you recall, the Little Rock AR NWS posted info about values above 300 help favor tornadic development.

And one more as I don't really want to overburden you with all these maps. This one's pretty neat as it shows how winds are turning with height from the 850mb level to the 500mb level and the Most Unstable Lift Index. We look for LI values to be quite negative (at least -4). The greater the negative value the more unstable thus able to support severe weather.

My thoughts are as follows. As I post this, it appears that the cap is eroding across Arkansas at this hour (8:30pm est). Look for rapid development of thunderstorms. I'm surprised the SPC has not already issued a WATCH for parts of Arkansas yet and areas downstream to western TN and southeast MO.  With that said, expect a squall line to eventually develop and race across the Mississippi river on the heels of a strong 60-70 kt jet. That could translate to about 50-65 mph winds at the surface for some locations along the line. Therefore, it will be difficult to time this thing. Current thinking is western KY 2am and central KY 5-6am. This is a very rough estimate. Better timing once storms really begin to fire.

More later.
MS

Ahh! Pizza Night...

Well, I've finished a few of my 'Honey-Do' chores and just treated myself to a robust and spicy homemade pizza. Must say it was delish! Nothing like a good basketball game (Florida/UK) and homemade pizza followed by a grand finale of Dutch apple pie w/ vanilla ice cream.

I love making pizza. It's always different each time. I like to combine different ingredients for a favorable and memorable effect. Yes, it's important for all of the ingredients to come together to produce that 'perfect' pizza.

Hmm, you know, I could be talking weather here. Think about it. I mean the pizza can represent a storm system. Seems like it's always different each time. And it takes a special combination of ingredients to produce a 'perfect' scenario for severe weather. But ALL those ingredients must come together for that desired effect.

Well, there's a lot of ingredients. First, let me share with you a little snippit from Little Rock AR NWS home page. Just a bit ago, they highlighted an ingredient that's very important in severe storm development.

  
Although damaging wind will be the primary severe weather component, they are expecting a lot of low level wind shear as depicted by this 0-1km Helicity Potential map. Values over 300 represent a significant risk for tornadoes. Therefore, while instability is typically lower at night, the high levels of expected wind shear will produce a chance for isolated tornadoes.

What does this mean for our region? Obviously, the western part of Kentucky will be closest to the action and stand the best chance for isolated tornadoes. Since this will be occurring at night, this becomes especially dangerous. However, as the night progresses, decreased instability and perhaps lower helicity values should minimize tornadic cells by dawn on Monday. Nevertheless, wind damage will be possible for central parts of the state as an impressive squall line will produce winds in excess of 50mph in places.

Several ingredients will be coming together for this expected widespread severe weather event. As they always say, timing is everything. If this system should SPEED up (which is not likely), an increased tornado threat could be realized as far east as the central part of Kentucky. On the other hand, if the system SLOWS down, severe weather could still be realized in the western part of the state but could be minimized in the central and east.

What are my thoughts? I've always had a problem with severe storms occurring in the morning. Lack of instability is a primary component why I tend to discount severe weather. However, after reviewing this fine explanation from the Little Rock NWS, there will be quite a bit of spin in the atmosphere. In addition, high dewpoints along with the low-level jet (perhaps weakening by then) will still be capable of supporting a squall line. If you don't see the squall by 11am Monday, then I do think severe criteria will become a lesser factor while heavy rain should exascerbate already water-logged soils.

For further info about nighttime tornadoes, see this write-up from the Paducah NWS:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=64575&source=0

I'll post further thoughts on this tomorrow. Check in with our local weather heroes for their latest input on this potentially widespread event.
MS

Calm before (another) storm

A raw day out there. At my location, we had 2.90" of rain. I was expecting at least 3", so that was pretty close. I thought the severe weather forecast I made was pretty accurate, keeping it confined for the most part to the south and southwest part of the state. According to the map below, my expected heavy rain band did not quite materialize across Hardin county as it was just south of that.

 
...in fact, I was thinking there was a slight chance for 5-6" amounts IF t'storms repeatedly 'trained' over the same area. Otherwise, I offered 3-4", which turned out pretty close.

Here are some additional reports from our CoCoRaHS volunteers across the rest of the state:

and Graves county where a tragic flash flooding event occured

I'll be offering my tboughts on the next storm system soon. For now, I'm going to rest up a bit and take care of some chores. I'm a little bit behind. Ha ha.
MS

Flooding is Likely...

***445pm est***
If they can have success before dark, check out the LIVE storm chase coverage
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
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***415pm est***
Tornado WARNING for Jackson TN
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***3:15pm est***

This is the latest DEWPOINT readings. As a rule of thumb, I  look for dewpoints in excess of 55 degrees to help support severe weather chances. Of course, wind fields above the surface are playing an important role in this one. That's why I think places that receive sunshine better look out later!
Here's the latest visible satellite image (images after dark won't show up)

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***UPDATE*** 2:20pm est
Rainfall totals thru 1:00pm est
Ft Campbell 1.43"
Owensboro 0.40"

Rainfall totals thru 12:00pm est
Louisville 0.14"
Bowling Green 1.29"
Lexington 0.41"
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***MIKS PIKS UPDATE***12:00pm est
I've been adding some relevant web cams for today's expected severe weather show plus additional sites for heavy rain/storm reports.
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***UPDATE***11:00am est
As you can tell, the heaviest rain totals are to the south. In fact, at my location in Valley Station (SW Jefferson county), I've recorded only 0.20". Nowcast mode has revealed some interesting developments. So far, the heaviest precip totals have been across NW Tennessee this morning with Doppler estimates of 3-5" already. That's a little farther south than my forecast thinking. I would have expected about an inch of rain here in Louisville by now. That could be good news. Perhaps lesser amounts anticipated here. Severe chances going up though for western KY. That could be bad news. Damaging wind will be the main threat but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
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Good Thursday...well, a wet Thursday.
Flooding is already taking a toll in NW Tennessee. At 3:04 am cst, Doppler estimates of 2-4" within a 3-hour window has occurred and an additional 1-3" is expected over the next 3 hours.in areas like Martin (see my SPECIAL piks list on the right), Paris, and Union City. In addition, these same areas are under a moderate risk for severe weather today and tonight.

Keep an eye on the totals for our region. Any storm reports as well.

 
Severe threat still exists downstate.
I'll be adding to this post throughout the day.
MS

Early Bird update

***Another Quick Update***3:30pm est
18ZNAM continues to show abundant moisture placement over the region. It looks to me that the NAM wants to take this storm system a tad north. Therefore, becoming more apparent to me that Louisville and adjacent areas could receive the heaviest axis of rain. In addition, severe chances could be going up for those areas I mentioned yesterday i.e. Hopkinsville and perhaps Bowling Green. Of course, it depends on the timing of any t'storm passage. The 5-6" amounts I mentioned earlier is NOT a sure bet as instability related to t'storm development may not materialize. But, I still cannot rule it out at this time. Otherwise 3-4".
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***Quick Update***12:00pm est
Latest 12zNAM still putting out close to 3" for Louisville. I still think these amounts are not enough!
Due to the expected slow movement of the warm front, expect some isolated areas of 5-6", especially where t'storms develop and keep 'training' over the same area. I'm expecting this to occur somewhere between Louisville and Munfordville as the north/south line.
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Good early Wednesday. Just wanted to mention a couple of things before I head for the hay.
SPC has upgraded many locations to our southwest to a MODERATE RISK for severe weather with possible strong tornadoes.

During the day, I will be posting some SPECIAL sites to the blog. Just check on the right hand side under MIKS PIKS and follow the action!

By the way, it's been fairly quiet so far this year, in terms of severe weather.

As you can tell, not too many reports of severe weather. Only 156 total reports so far since Jan 1, including 8 preliminary reports of tornadoes. The total number of reports will likely double in a couple of days.

However, for many in our region, the potential for flooding rains will be our primary concern.
Here's the latest from the HPC:

These number are quite impressive. Flash flood watches will likely go in effect today.
My current thinking on precip totals is still in the developing stage but do believe where I live here in Louisville will get AT LEAST 3".

More later. Keep checking back in for those SPECIAL sites I'll be posting today.
MS

UPDATE Severe Weather Chances

***UPDATE on the update***5:30pm est
The latest GEM and 18zNAM really putting out a lot of rain potential for the area. I still think a severe threat exists for some downstate, but I'm focusing more on the potential for flooding rains at this time especially along and just north of the warm front, which now looks to include areas near Louisville. I do expect Bowling Green to be in the warm sector with rising severe chances for them. Keep checking back.
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A rainy week ahead is almost a sure lock. However, despite the potential for heavy rain from this system that's sure to cause river levels to rise, more and more attention is being given to the threat of severe weather somewhere in our region (southern Indiana and all of Kentucky).

Keep your eyes open for any NEW UPDATE due out from the SPC for our severe weather chances:
At present, we have a slight risk for severe weather here in the region.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Heavy rain update from the HPC:

I'll check back in just a bit.
MS

Rainy Week Ahead....

Our weather is finally looking active again. A combination of spring and winter events will keep us busy with planning our wardrobe this week. Oh, and don't forget the umbrella!

I like the current model placement of moisture for the region. I thought the GEM handled this one more consistently than the NAM and GFS the past couple of days. A heavier axis of precip presently set up along and north of the Ohio River will continue to bring beneficial rains for them. As for the rest of us, a general half-inch or less should suffice.

I'm now directing my attention toward the weather system for later this week. Depending on the timing of things, some areas in our region could see some severe weather. First, I would like to mention that the SPC has something to say about storms later this week:

Here's their latest thinking...
   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON THU/D4 FROM
   ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...NRN MS...CNTRL AND
   WRN KY AND TN...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO FRI/D5 ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS
   IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
We'll see how this develops. According to the models presently, if any severe weather does break out, far southern and western parts of the state could be impacted. But as we all know too often, models change. So, we'll just have to wait and watch.

Regardless, without severe weather, heavy rain is expected regionwide, especially across parts of Kentucky. 1-3" of rain can be expected. As the GEM performed the best on this past system, I'm introducing a couple  of the 12z runs:

and...

  
And don't forget what's been happening elsewhere. Minneapolis St Paul received a foot of snow from their blizzard and it's heading toward the Northeast U.S.  Here are some additional snow and ice reports from the region.
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/stormreports/2011/02/21/usnorthcentral.html

Watch the cold air filter in later tonight...
Could be a few flakes flying around.
Have a good one.
MS