What to Expect the Next 14 Days (Feb 5 - 19)

Cold. That should about sum it up.

I've analyzed the 500mb forecast for the next 10-14 days and a persistent pattern will be prevalent.

This is different than the pattern we saw for much of January, when the Arctic region and Alaska were much above normal regards to temperatures. In addition, the Pacific Northwest felt the effects of the ridge. Our region was impacted as cold air dove deep into the nation's midsection, producing Arctic outbreaks.

There will still be a good deal of ridging along the Pacific coast. Also, there will be an impressive ridge near Siberia. However, there will also be a broad cyclonic flow near Alaska, with stormy conditions.

So, the cold air will be coming from Siberia, thanks to weaker winds associated with their ridge, through Alaska and the Arctic into the Great Plains, which promises to produce very cold readings over the next several days. Therefore, which would you rather have? Arctic or Siberian?

The only saving grace for this period will be the higher sun angle which may help mitigate or modify the cold air intrusions from the north. Still, single digit temperatures could still exist in our region, even by the middle of the month.

And what about that sunlight to help modify our temperatures? The next two weeks should be characterized by active weather patterns. With below normal temperatures expected, we could be looking at an onslaught of precipitation, yes, wintry precipitation as well.

Arctic Oscillation is expected to go negative, very negative.
PNA will be mostly negative as well.

While this setup is generally not favorable for a big snowmaker in our region, the placement of the trough relative to the Alaskan coast coinciding with a Siberian ridge funneling cold air across the Arctic regions diving south into the United States may produce interesting storm tracks here in the U.S.

Where those storm tracks interact with the cold air in place will determine who gets heavy snowfall and ice. This should be an interesting , if not wild weather pattern setting up for the next several days, or should I say a continuation of the wild weather pattern.

Old Man Winter looks like he's going for the knockout punch. Stay tuned.

MS