The Cold and Snow

It looks like another in a long line of disturbances to affect the region later tonight. I will be reviewing the 36 hour NAM forecast or the 6z run as the graphics become available this morning. For me, this will be about as accurate as the NAM will be.

Also, I am excited about looking at the next run of the Euro. The last run on day 6 shows low pressure developing along the Gulf coast and riding up the east coast by day 7. This has BIG snow written all over it. It looks as if Kentucky will get in on some of this action. The best location for highest accumulations looks to be along and east of I-65, especially eastern KY. Remember, I like the Euro at 6-7 days out. I don't even look at the GFS until day 5 and that's just to compare the tracks of the models. I believe the Euro handled the ice system quite well at 6 days out.

More updates on these two systems later on this page.
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9:55am UPDATE
I've reviewed the 06z/07 run of the NAM
As expected, this looks like a nuisance snow for some of us. I will not be including any future runs of the NAM in the short term from here on out except to compare them to the short term models like the Rapid Refresh Model. The NAM has a history of overdoing QPF amounts and sometimes undercutting them within 24 hours.

Generally snow accumulations of 0.5" to 1.5" will be common, especially south of I-64.
Here are a select few locations:
Louisville 0.6"
Lexington 0.8"
Bowling Green 1.3"

I will say that this forecast from the NAM may have a measure of bust potential as snow to liquid ratios appear relatively high like 14 to 16:1. Therefore, some of these totals may have to be adjusted upward but still think most locations will not get out of a range of 1-3".

However, will be following the next several runs of the NAM as a system dives in Saturday night/Sunday morning, which may produce a quick-hitting large swath of snow mainly along and north of I-64, that may bring a couple more inches of accumulation for some.

Next, I'll be studying the latest Euro run for the storm system that may potentially impact our region mid-week.

MS