Ah, I said beware of the 'snow job' fallacy during a prior post. Data for our upcoming storm system comes in weaker mainly because the phasing aspect may not materialize as assumed. Nevertheless, my low end conservative guidance remains in play (2-3"). And things can still change. I'll be taking a look at the NAM model throughout the day. It is perhaps the main driver in my MrHP (Mid-range Highest Probability) snow forecast. The other factors include the timing (24-36 hours out), upper air forecasts, surface temperature forecasts, and to a limited extent (and I do mean limited) my personal expectations based on observed data.
Even if this forecast does not favor snow enthusiasts' expectations, winter is not over yet. So far, the CPC has put out these mid-range forecasts that have been surprisingly accurate, at least for our region. They predicted the above average warmth and wetness just before the middle of the month. They predicted the below normal cold and below normal precipitation for this period, again some 6-14 days out.
Mark this on your calendars. The January 28 - February 03 time frame is expecting above normal precipitation. Interestingly, the first part of February could be looking at below normal temperatures. Coincide the cold with the precipitation and we could be looking at the elusive 'big one' for our region. Or at the very least, our biggest snowfall of the winter season is in store.
You can check out their predictions at the link below...
CPC Outlook and Information Page
MS
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