Another 'Snow Job'?

Snow Job - "an attempt to deceive or persuade by using flattery or exaggeration" (Dictionary.com)

For at least a couple of days now, NWS offices and other mets have been advertising an 'impactful' winter storm for the Jan 24-26 time frame.

The NWS Louisville office reminds us that despite high confidence for a storm system to affect the region, precipitation types are still 'up in the air'. At this time, a southern track remains the preferred choice.

If the southern track should verify, then sizable snow amounts can be expected, generally north of a line from Beaver Dam to Richmond. However, as usual, Kentucky seems to be the battleground for transitional precipitation.

Any shift in the storm track will impact snow and ice amounts significantly. However, there seems to be growing confidence that a wintry scenario will unfold across the state due to the presence of a retreating yet still present Arctic air mass by Thursday.

Since this type of cold air is difficult to budge at the surface, how thin will the Arctic layer become? If precipitation falls later than expected, warmer air will nudge in from the south in the upper layers of the atmosphere, possibly falling as rain for some of us. The problem then becomes, if temperatures are below freezing, perhaps 3-5 degrees below freezing, any liquid rain that falls will freeze on contact with surfaces and other objects (thus freezing rain).

I'm not here to exaggerate precipitation amounts and types. The storm system is still just offshore. Remember, as I know from personal experience, Arctic air masses are typically stubborn. Cold air likes to hang around, especially near snow-packed areas. There's not much snow out there. Also, these air masses have a great deal of dry air with them. Any precipitation that falls generally have a difficult time making it to the surface.

Depending on the speed, strength, and track of the storm system, it will be interesting to forecast how a developing winter storm will fare against a retreating yet somewhat strong Arctic air mass.

Nevertheless, 2-6" looks like a conservative guesstimate for those who get mostly snow. Although this sounds like an appreciable amount, any mixing of precipitation will reduce those totals in a hurry.

The main concern that I have with this upcoming system is the ice potential. It could become a widespread issue, not like the last storm where only a relatively few locations were significantly impacted.

If the current track remains, ice accumulations for Campbellsville to Corbin  appear possible, at least somewhere in that region, maybe even more locations of eastern KY as well.

For now, let's just wait and see as the storm system comes ashore. Upper air data can then be calculated and storm track along with p-types will become a little clearer.

Looks like another tough snow job to forecast, or should I say, beware of those snow job forecasts that persuade you this will be an easy storm to forecast.

MS