Analogs Depicting Severe Weather Chances 01/28/13

At times, especially during the spring, analogs have proven to be useful indicators of what types of severe weather can be expected. In fact, I followed some analogs last year that predicted the violent weather that eventually played out across southern IN and parts of eastern KY.

I'll be updating with additional posts concerning these analogs as we get closer to a possible severe weather outbreak.

Today, I'm looking at a 48-hour NAM based on the top 15 analogs' input made at 7pm last evening. So far, just looking at this run, an impressive outbreak of severe weather for this time of the year could occur. According to the latest run, wind damage appears to be the primary threat. However, tornadoes also look likely in some areas.

Breaking it down, the most likely areas to see severe weather will be central and northern Arkansas, much of  western Tennessee, and western Kentucky. Based on percentages I'm looking at this morning, the top 15 analogs are suggesting a 20-30 percent chance for damaging wind across these areas. Also, an impressive 5-10 percent chance for tornadoes looks greatest across eastern and northern Arkansas along with southwestern Tennessee. An area of southern Missouri south of I-44 may be impacted as well.

However, across our region here in Kentucky, tornado chances do exist (2-5 percent). The  most likely scenario will be the threat for wind damage.

Currently, the SPC has issued its Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook and has much of Arkansas in a high-end slight risk category. I may be going out on a limb here, but I do expect some areas to be upgraded to a moderate risk for severe weather. I would include Arkansas, western Tennessee, and maybe western Kentucky.

Updates will be coming this afternoon.

MS