I've looked at other years' analogs but still believe that the winter 2000/2001 will match this winter's forecast, despite the increasing possibility that the follow-up La Nina to 2010's could be stronger.
A stronger La Nina just means more extreme events. One thing about the upcoming 2011/2012 winter is the delayed onset of La Nina conditions initially here in our region.
I believe that a good chunk of the month of November will see above average temperatures. I'm not talking balmy, Florida-like conditions but no serious cold outbreaks here. That should lurk just north and northwest of our region. Some indications are showing that the colder air may arrive before Thanksgiving, though.
December will see the transition to a colder pattern, more indicative of winter. Now, there will be some less cold days than other days. However, remember how I mentioned those extreme events? We will begin to see the effects of those. I think it would be quite neat to see some of those direct hits here, but we'll just have to wait and see.
However, don't fret if we miss out on part of the fun, initially. As the month of December progresses, strong low-pressure systems will continue to funnel increasingly colder air into the region.
The cold air invasion should correspond with a strengthening La Nina toward the end of the year and will carry over into the first part of January. I still feel that the main action will occur north of the region; however, dips in the jet stream will allow us a taste of winter's fun.
Then, an Arctic blast will put an end to the 'fun' pattern. The rest of January could prove to be one of the top ten coldest on record for parts of Kentucky and Indiana as wave after wave of Arctic chill grips the area. Along with the bitter cold readings will be shots of clipper-like systems that could deposit an inch or two here or there in our region.
February will start out very cold but modifying with each Pacific coast storm that moves toward the area. Warmer readings will battle the cold lurking to the north. The battle line appears to be drawn across the north and northeast parts of the United States.
Again, our region will be very close to the action. I cannot emphasize enough the 'bust' potential of this forecast. It always seems that Kentucky is right in the middle of the battleground between the winter's fun and winter's done scenario.
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Here's some things to think about....
If this La Nina proves to be stronger than last year's, expect stronger Low pressure systems. Although these should drag down colder air behind it, keep in mind that ahead of these systems, more warm air will be pumped into the system.
What we need for a mega snowstorm is a strong Low racing northward into Canada, stalling its associated front in the Appalachians with a secondary Low riding up the front thus depositing some healthy snow amounts for some in the region, primarily east. A cutoff Low would be an ideal candidate in a situation like this. The chances for this look more promising in late December and early January though.
If the colder air can become firmly entrenched here in January, I do not foresee any ice storms for the month. However, as February progresses, cold air at the surface may become an issue as 'warmer' storm systems impede the region.
Also, I'll be monitoring the snowpack that will continue to develop across the Canadian regions, as this may impact the amount of cold air we receive.
Regarding the storm systems, from December through February, I'm expecting at least one storm per week. That's at least 12 chances for us getting in on at least some of the 'fun'. This does not include any upper air disturbances that typically rotate around Low pressure systems that can bring generally light precipitation.
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Finally, let's break it down into information you guys really care about. I have applied what I call a MrHP(Mid-range Highest Probability) analysis. This is not just a national scenario, but global probabilities how this winter should affect parts of the United States.
While this is just an average of the two main storm tracks for this winter, expect fluctuations that could possibly allow for phasing of the storm tracks, which always makes for interesting weather around here. I still believe that east and northeast Kentucky, central and east Indiana, and southern Ohio stand the highest probabilities for much above normal snow chances in our region.
Despite the low probabilities of forecasting actual snow amounts for the winter (Dec-Feb), I'll try and provide snow amounts for selected areas in our region in a future post, based on normal averages for those locations.
Other than that, here's to another winter of possible extremes.
MS
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