Severe Wx Potential

This is for the April 10-11 time frame. This will be my final look at analogs for this upcoming system.

Severe weather potential starting to come into focus a little bit better. Again, though, remember models are still offering conflicting solutions about the frontal passage in our area.

Nevertheless, a recent NAM analog shows potential for severe weather across southern KY into central TN and northern AL. Greatest threat according to top analogs suggests the areas between Nashville TN and Huntsville AL.

The greatest threat appears to be damaging wind. However, there is a threat for tornadoes, especially across TN and AL. Scattered severe hail reports could occur anywhere along the front.

So, there is a slight chance for damaging wind here in Louisville. But, it looks like the bulk of any severe weather should be limited to the south. Yesterday, though, a GFS analog showed severe weather potential farther south than today's run of the NAM.

Again, this could be related to timing issues amongst the models.

Therefore, we'll have to fine-tune this thing still yet. So, keep up with the latest updates.

MS