SPC is closely monitoring a significant severe weather outbreak that should climax during the late Thursday/early Friday time period. Locations to the west of I-65 stand the best shot at seeing damage.
In fact, an upgrade to moderate risk status seems plausible in light of the strong wind fields associated with the front.
A NAM analog did not seem as robust to support severe weather for our region. However, I must be quick to point out that the GFS analogs did a better job on the last storm system in predicting overall severe weather than the NAM.
Regardless, now is the time to start looking at model trends as the timing, wind fields, instability, cap strength, and so forth start becoming clearer. That's what I'll be looking at today.
I'm still quite bullish on the prospects for severe weather here in Kentucky. I'm not going to rule anyone out in this one. But, odds favor the western part of the state that would be exposed to the greatest instability.
More later.
MS
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