More Severe Storms Possible???

3:00pm UPDATE
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect till 10:00pm....for much of central Kentucky. Looks like a low-end thunderstorm watch as only moderate risks for severe weather exist with wind/hail parameters and low for tornadoes.

Of interest to me is a cluster of storms currently traversing northeast, now located just east of Owensboro. Storms are not severe yet but are entering a more favorable environment for strengthening. If this cluster holds together, storms could affect my location in the southern suburbs of Louisville by 4:00 pm or so.

I'm still expecting another line of storms to fire well west of the region by then. These could also prove to be strong later. We'll wait and see how the convective process unfolds.
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12:40pm UPDATE
No significant change to SPC's severe weather potential map. It does appear the highest tornado risk has shifted slightly north.

Nevertheless, they continue to advertise the possibility for strong/severe storms later this afternoon, possibly into the after-sundown period.

I'm still expecting more severe weather reports for our region than yesterday. Looking at the latest mesoscale maps, destabilization is taking place region-wide while convective initiation could occur within an area in Missouri near the Mississippi river. Once those storms start to fire, and dependent on any cap that may be in place, storms will rapidly spread eastward.

Storms may arrive later today than yesterday. Therefore, it's still too early to tell exactly where the best potential for severe weather exists. At this time, I'm placing a 60 percent chance for a Watch issuance. Looks like best locations at this time would be along and north of Ohio river. I still would like to see how convective initiation unfolds later this afternoon.

By 4pm or so, storms should be firing well west of our region. However, we should be able to pinpoint possible locations and impacts from any storms that may occur later for the region.
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Yesterday's severe weather coverage was pretty limited. Only a few severe weather reports came in...Hopkinsville and areas of northern Kentucky in Owen county and near the Cincinnati area.

What about today? I've noticed a discrepancy between our own local weather office and the Storm Prediction Center.

NWS office in Louisville indicates scattered storms for the region today with some strong wind gusts possible along with some small hail. Overall, not a widespread event. If I was interpreting this data for assigning a severe weather watch, I would rate this at about 30 percent.

However, the most recent update from the SPC has a 5 percent risk for tornadoes in the region. Damaging wind and small hail appear possible as well. Sounds like a setup we saw yesterday, except storms will be along what I call a 'periphery region'.

A ridge will be building into the area for the rest of the week with very warm temperatures. However, before said ridge builds in, along the periphery of the really warm air, aggressive storms are normally the rule.

I say there's a better chance today for severe weather than yesterday. Look for more storm reports for our region than the less-than-handful reports from yesterday.

An update from the SPC is due out before 1:00 pm. I'll be posting an update then and provide any further thoughts, if necessary.

MS