BIG Storms Coming Later Today...

3:30pm UPDATE
Storms are beginning to erupt to our west and northwest in a favorable environment for storm initiation. CAPE vals are high enough but I'm still awaiting for the LI's to reach -4 (right now at -3 here in Louisville). In another couple of hours, at least the chance for scattered storms will exist.

Given the atmosphere's moisture content, expect heavy downpours with any storms over your area. Analyzing the DCAPE vals or downdraft CAPE, parts of central and eastern KY could be in line for winds exceeding 50 mph in places, especially if a squall line could form. Otherwise, a broken line of storms with isolated wind gusts over 50 mph could be possible.

Since wind shear is not the main driving force, I'm expecting wet microbursts to cause most of the highest wind gusts in any storms later. Although no watches are in effect, any one of these storms that do develop could become strong in a hurry.
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12:40pm UPDATE
Updated SPC Severe Weather Probability is out...
The SPC has decided to drop most of the region out of the slight risk area for severe thunderstorms. I still think there will be some warnings along the cold front as it plows into the region. Just have to wait and see how things develop.
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First, let me give a shout out to all the nurses that use their skills and talents, assisting doctors so that we can get better. This is National Nurse's Week (May 6-12).

Now, about this weather. This past Friday night, we saw rainfall amounts ranging anywhere from 1 to nearly 3". In addition, Grayson county suffered the brunt of the severe weather that occurred. Lots of tree damage and some structures damaged as well in the Leitchfield area.

As the active weather pattern continues, there is another chance for strong/severe storms later this afternoon and evening regionwide.

Damaging wind and heavy rain along with lightning pose the greatest threats.

Currently, thunderstorm tops across the midwest are warming; therefore, expect those storms to continue to weaken late this morning and early afternoon.

However, by 3pm or so, I would expect to see enough destabilization to spark a few scattered storms. And then the action will start to accelerate rapidly. Watches should begin to go up after 3pm or so.

This is a pretty potent cold front. I would expect a squall line that could produce widespread wind damage in its wake. Have those weather radios handy and your emergency preparedness plan in place now in case things look threatening later.

MS