5:30 pm UPDATE
Storms have developed east of the Metro Louisville area near Frankfort. Some have reached severe criteria (radar-indicated). I'm now beginning to see the storms I mentioned earlier developing to our north and northwest. These will have a chance to affect parts of Indiana and possibly some counties within the LMK county warning area.
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Wow, have you seen the recent CAPE values and Lifted Indices? Approaching 4500 and -9 respectively. This is one unstable airmass. However, there must be some capping in the upper levels, thanks to an expanding ridge of High pressure.
But I do see some signs of weakness in the cap, perhaps to our north. I think the best chance for storms will exist across Indiana, perhaps even reaching southern Indiana thru early evening.
There is a slight chance for storms to reach Louisville, if these can develop. Depends on the fluctuating ridge that continues to build into the area. Any storms that do develop will produce extremely heavy rainfall, intense lightning, and some isolated, damaging microburst winds.
Most of the activity that does develop will fade away after sunset.
MS
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