Monday, February 25, 2019

MikJournal Monday 02/25/2019...Drying Out

What a wet pattern we have been enduring. Will we finally dry out? Welcome to another installment of MikJournal Monday, the 25th of February, when the average high temperature for this date in Louisville, Kentucky has historically averaged out to 48.2 degrees.

Yes, it has been a very wet month of February. I am still in the process of updating totals for the blog. However, one thing I haven't needed to update, at least locally, is the snowfall. And perhaps many of us would like to see some snow just as long as it is not rain, because we have had way too much of that.

Here is a profound statement. Many places in Kentucky have seen more than twice as many inches of rainfall than snowfall. Shouldn't that be the other way around for a normal Dec-Feb winter?

There have been no shortage of reports statewide regarding our flooded streets, yards, and rivers. Social media stepped up and provided invaluable imagery and descriptive accounts of what was happening in their own communities or nearby locations.

Nevertheless, please be careful. Don't sacrifice safety just to 'beef up' the number of hits for your social media account. It's just not worth it. Live to see another day. Right?

Now, what everyone wants to know is, "Are we ever going to get out of this wet pattern?"

Unfortunately, the teleconnection patterns I follow have changed very little and are forecast to show little change. However, there does appear to be a pattern shift. No, not a change, but a shift. What do I mean?

After a nice period of drying out this week, much cooler weather appears in the extended forecast. Hopefully, this means the main conveyor belt of moisture will now shift to the south of our region. Yes, the moisture will continue to be richly fed by Pacific air and the Gulf of Mexico. However, any storm systems might take a more southern route .

The Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 day outlook for the first week of March shows below normal temperatures and a chance for above normal precipitation for our region. We don't want to hear that part, above normal precipitation. However, the exciting part is that some of that precipitation might not fall as all rain.

Although the teleconnection patterns do not favor a significant winter event for Kentucky, the setup does favor overrunning moisture, which could lead to some wet snow or perhaps icing problems. Again, nothing significant...yet.

Overall, it does appear likely our region will see below normal temperatures, on average, for the first 10 days of March. We will see about that.. If the NAO continues its run of neutral/positive readings, we should see some milder days but offset by more cooler days. I'm not ready to say this will be a record cold March coming up. Any polar intrusions will be short-lived, because the dominant pattern will be Pacific air, at least through the early part of March.

That's all I have for today. Make it a good week. Remember, less than 4 weeks from now, Spring.

MS

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