NAM That Tune

24-Hour Update Most recent run of the NAM (12z 01/10)
Trend continues northward jog of heaviest precipitation through Sunday evening. If all snow, could be a smackdown. This is for areas along and just north of the Ohio River nearest central and northern Kentucky. Still hard to gauge how the western part of the state will be impacted. But areas further north there too, if all snow, could be significantly impacted. With this northward expansion of more liquid, could there be more of a mix than even what the NAM is showing? That's why I say let's see what the evening run shows. Some of these snow totals look a little too aggressive.
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First full reliable run (12z 01/09)of the NAM is in....well, it looks like a mess.

Using the data from this run, this is what I can interpret.

Initial band of snow overspreads the region Friday night. Possible 1-3" amounts for quite a few. There could be isolated 4" amounts and the snow could be very dense. A break in the action during the day Saturday as rain or rain/snow mix moves back in during the afternoon thereby melting much of the overnight accumulation. This goes through Saturday evening.

This continues the theme of an increasingly wet solution. At the same time, those who get mostly snow will see a modest amount.

I like the NAM at or just within 24 hours of storm arrival for a most accurate interpretation. So, give it a few more runs through at least tomorrow evening.

I will update this page as additional runs come in, likely the 12z run tomorrow and the 0z run Thursday evening.

MS