MikJournal Monday 01/07/2019...Fun Stats

Welcome to the first MikJournal Monday of the new year. Hopefully, for some, this will be a better year for weather. Unfortunately for some, that's why we have historical and recordable observations. After all, that is how many of us found out last year was our wettest year on record.

This time, though, I would like to uncover some statistics and put a different spin on them. Will this have any correlation with how our weather will play out the rest of this winter? Probably not. It's still fun to look at them.

For example, the month of November 2018. I know I remember it. We had an ice storm that knocked me off the power grid for nearly 40 consecutive hours. The living room was a chilly 52 degrees.

During November, Lexington recorded 3 days of measurable snowfall or sleet. While that in itself does not sound amazing, leafing through the pages of history, the maximum number of days of measurable snowfall in November has been 5 days. This occurred during the snow season of 1972/73 and 1950/51. 

It was quite interesting to uncover what happened the rest of the winter. The snow season of 1972/73 saw measurable snowfall for 7 consecutive months of the year. Yes, October through April. The winter months of December through February produced above normal temperatures for December and January, but below normal temperatures for February. The month of March was well above normal and April came in at below normal. The snow season total came to a whopping 5.3". Let me retype that again...5.3". Yep, 5.3".

Rewind to the snow season of 1950/51. Those 5 days in November were a bit more snow-efficient. In fact, to this day, November 1950 is the snowiest month in Lexington's climatological history at 9.7". How did the rest of the winter fare? How does 41.7" sound? Yes, that is still the 5th snowiest snow season on record for Lexington.

But, back to those 3 days in November 2018. The accumulated snowfall was not much, 1.0". Add December's 1 and only day of measurable snowfall of 0.1" and you have a fairly slow start to the snow season.

During the 1911/12 snow season, the accumulated snowfall for those 3 days in November was not much, 1.8". December only had 1 day of measurable snowfall, 0.3" producing 2.1" for the two months combined. Again, not a very impressive start. But, they wound up with 23.9". Not bad. For the winter months of December through February, the total was 16.5", again a modest number.

Temperatures during the 1911/12 snow season averaged 4.8 degrees above normal in December, 9.8 degrees below normal in January (5th coldest January on record), and 9.3 degrees below normal in February. March was a little better at 6.2 degrees below normal along with over 5.5" snowfall for the month.

Now, looking at the present, Lexington did enjoy some relative warmth in December at 5.0 degrees above normal. However, I am going to go out on a limb here and say that Lexington will not have a 9+ degrees below normal month for this January. Right now, they are sitting pretty at 10.5 degrees above normal through the first 6 days with expected temperatures over the next couple of days of 15-20 degrees above normal today and at least 10 degrees above normal tomorrow before a more realistic winter pattern sets in for a few days this week.

That brings us to the upcoming weekend. Indications are showing a possible winter scenario unfolding for our region. So, how about it? Well, while your professional forecasters, who can give you a winter snowfall total for 3 months in advance, but cannot do so at now less than 6 days out, discuss the potential for frozen precipitation by using waffling models, I go a little beyond that and discuss other contributing factors besides these unreliable models this far out.

Using the teleconnections, the AO does show a definitive V-shape signature indicative of a potential winter storm for at least parts of our region. As I have explained before, the AO has to be in the negative phase, bottoming out, then trending positive toward the neutral line. Somewhere along that positively trending line will be our winter storm potential. And it does align with the possibility for precipitation breaking out according to the models.

However, the AO is not the only game in town. Other teleconnections have to contribute. Recently, I have reviewed the PNA pattern and like what I see. A positive PNA trending a little negative toward the neutral line. That's another strong indication for winter storm potential.

Unfortunately, I do not have access to the EPO data thanks to our wonderful government shutdown .

Regardless, what I am most disturbed about this upcoming week's winter storm potential is the behavior of the NAO. It would be nice to have a nice blocking signal in the northeast to help keep the cold air from getting away too fast. But, the GFS ensembles have consistently shown agreement that there is no definitive signal for a significant blocking pattern to develop by this weekend.

What does this mean for our region? We will have a cold, Canadian air mass over the next few days. This is not an Arctic air mass. It will not have shallow, cold air trapped at the surface. Once this storm system moves in, warmer air will become drawn into the region. How much warmer air really depends on any blocking to our northeast. If it's not a significant block, the cold air is just going to be pushed aside.

Could we still see frozen precipitation? Yes, parts of our region could see frozen precipitation. However, temperatures at and above the surface will be marginal in supporting all snow. This kind of setup could lead to a heavy wet snow for some, a rain/sleet/snow mix for some, and a mostly liquid event for some.

Right now, and of course this is going to change since some of the short term models will be sampling this thing soon, I would expect far northern Kentucky to see the highest chances (and it's really not that high to begin with) for snowfall this weekend. The rest of us will have to put up with a mixed bag of snow/sleet/rain.

Again, it's something to watch. It will be fun watching these forecast models giveth and taketh away. People really rely on every single run of these models for some reason. It's like grab a beer and let's see what the next run give us. If it's not good, just bring the whole keg and let's forget about the whole thing. Whatever.

Have a good week. I'm sure you'll be tuned in to your favorite media sources for the latest updates on our next storm system.

MS